Below-median family income households are overcoming constraints related to increased borrowing costs and home prices and are finding ways to become homeowners, according to Freddie Mac’s latest economic, housing and mortgage outlook.  

The below-median family income homeownership rate increased to 53% from 48% since 2016, Freddie Mac said, citing data from the Census Bureau’s Housing Vacancy survey.  In turn, the below-median family income homeownership rate drove the overall increase in the total homeownership rate during that time. 

The homeownership rate for owner-occupied households with a family income higher than the median family income grew at a much slower pace than the below-median family income homeownership rate.

Since the second quarter of 2016, the below-median family income homeownership rate has increased 5.4 percentage points, while the above-median family income homeownership rate has only increased 0.8 percentage points, according to the Census Bureau’s data. 

The homeownership rate gap between above-median and below-median family income households has also shrunk over the last couple of years, and has generally been trending down over the past decade. This is due to the growth in the below-median family income homeownership rate continuing to outpace the above median family income homeownership rate growth, according to Freddie Mac. 

“Below-median family income households are overcoming constraints and finding ways to become homeowners even within a less affordable environment – an encouraging sign as we continue to celebrate National Homeownership Month,” the agency said. 

In terms of home prices, the government-sponsored enterprise (GSE) expects them to fall by 2.9% over 12 months through the first quarter of next year, and is expecting an additional decline of 1.3% over the subsequent 12 months.

Mortgage origination volume will likely increase in the second quarter of this year due to seasonality in the housing market, but origination volume for 2023 will almost certainly be below 2022 levels, the GSE said. 

Purchase originations are projected to stay flat before strengthening later this year as home sales stabilize, according to Freddie Mac. It will take until 2024 for purchase originations to resume modest growth, the GSE noted. 

Freddie Mac’s projections are in line with the recent Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) forecasts.

According to the MBA, the median price of existing homes is expected to decline 4.2%, dropping to $367,800 in 2023 from $384,000 in 2022. In 2024, the MBA expects the median price of existing homes to fall an additional 2.1% to $375,400.

Purchase originations are projected by the MBA to increase to 3.9 million loans in volume in 2024 from 3.2 million in 2023.